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Value betting system: why is it profitable to bet against favorites

Value betting is a betting strategy on the underestimated by bookmakers events. The better needs to be an expert in that kind of sport to use that scheme. The other title of the scheme is betting with advance. That strategy allows to earn a profit in a long run.

The value betting strategy specifics

The value betting strategy is a long-term scheme hence, the better should not expect gaining a return in no time. The scheme implies making a bet on improbable outcomes with high odds.

Miller system based on betting a fixed sum which is recalculated after earning the planned profit is optimal for determination of the most appropriate bet size and the bankroll management. In case the better can determine exactly the likelihood of an event, Kelly criterion can be applied as well. Normally, the minimal size of the bet is 1%-5%. Such sums are rather convenient and safe for the better in case of a sequence of losses.

How to choose appropriate events

To gain a profit in a long run the better should make wagers only on certain events. The following formula will help to find out whether an event fits value betting strategy:

К*Р>1, where

К – bookmaker’s odds;

Р – likelihood of the outcome calculated by the better.

If the product is higher than one, the event is underestimated.

It is important to be an expert in the betting kind of sport and to be able to identify the likelihood of events to make no mistakes in predicting the underestimated events. To do that the better needs to monitor sport events closely, to analyze them and to come to corresponding conclusions.

The value bets are mainly made on matches of poorly-known teams. It can be explained by the fact that the more famous the team is, the more information the bookmaker has about it and visa-versa.

Advantages and disadvantages of the strategy

Value betting strategy usage provides the better with the following advantages:

  • The level of rick is rather low.
  • As these bets do not make a bookmaker suspicious they will not be blocked.
  • It is a long-run and stable profit-gaining scheme.

The list of the strategy disadvantages includes:

  • Difficulties in searching the corresponding events.
  • Necessity of the better’s own analysis and calculation of the likelihood.
  • Significant profit can be gained only in a long run. As a rule, the better needs to make at least 100 wagers.

Better’s main rules

The betters chosen the strategy should observe the following rules:

  • The wager on the event should be made only when the better is confident that the event is underestimated. Poor calculation of the likelihood may result in losses.
  • The better should select the sport of their expertise to identify the likelihood of events correctly.
  • As there is always a risk of losing the size of the bet should not be too high.
  • The better should strictly follow the chosen strategy.

Value betting strategy has been developed for professional betters familiar with analytics. On the contrary, the beginners may have some problems with selection of correct wagers. In general, the scheme is rather safe and the better can gain a profit permanently if they observe all the requirements mentioned above.